South Alabama

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	270.0
Current RPI:	270
Expected SOS:	267
Current SOS:	267
Current Record:	12-18
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Conf Record:	7-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-8
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	279
Expected OOC SOS:	342

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-18	270.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Alabama.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	A	75-50	L	0%
11-16	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	81-73	L	0%
11-18	Maine (338.0)	AE	N	46-68	W	100%
11-19	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	N	49-54	W	100%
11-22	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	77-81	L	0%
11-26	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	55-52	W	100%
11-29	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	69-58	W	100%
12-2	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	87-58	L	0%
12-10	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	76-75	L	0%
12-16	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	63-52	W	100%
12-21	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	A	77-73	L	0%
12-29	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	86-64	W	100%
12-31	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	69-67	W	100%
1-4	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	72-69	L	0%
1-6	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	91-67	L	0%
1-13	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	64-79	L	0%
1-18	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	60-57	W	100%
1-20	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	83-77	W	100%
1-25	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	76-57	L	0%
1-27	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	83-74	L	0%
2-3	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	80-63	L	0%
2-8	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	73-56	W	100%
2-10	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	87-67	W	100%
2-15	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	A	66-77	W	100%
2-17	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	72-70	L	0%
2-22	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	62-66	L	0%
2-24	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	71-88	L	0%
3-1	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	81-74	L	0%
3-3	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	90-75	L	0%
3-7	Troy (194.0)	SB	N	69-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Alabama's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Alabama's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Alabama.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Alabama	SB	26.31	26.31	37.93	37.93	-6.35	-6.35
Troy	SB	5.85	5.85	39.29	39.29	-1.25	-1.25
Georgia St.	SB	4.23	4.23	70.00	70.00	1.69	1.69
Georgia Southern	SB	4.15	4.15	62.07	62.07	1.00	1.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.13	4.13	79.31	79.31	2.42	2.42
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.12	4.12	42.31	42.31	-0.63	-0.63
Appalachian St.	SB	4.10	4.10	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Coastal Carolina	SB	4.06	4.06	37.04	37.04	-1.05	-1.05
UT Arlington	SB	2.68	2.68	59.38	59.38	0.50	0.50
Texas St.	SB	2.63	2.63	40.00	40.00	-0.53	-0.53
Arkansas St.	SB	2.58	2.58	31.03	31.03	-0.98	-0.98
Little Rock	SB	2.57	2.57	20.69	20.69	-1.51	-1.51
Southern Miss	CUSA	1.80	1.80	41.38	41.38	-0.31	-0.31
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.75	1.75	27.59	27.59	-0.79	-0.79
FIU	CUSA	1.75	1.75	35.71	35.71	-0.50	-0.50
Stetson	ASun	1.72	1.72	25.93	25.93	-0.83	-0.83
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.72	1.72	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
New Orleans	Slnd	1.72	1.72	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
Tulane	Amer	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Texas Tech	B12	1.69	1.69	71.88	71.88	0.74	0.74
La Salle	A10	1.69	1.69	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Saint Peter's	MAAC	1.69	1.69	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Maine	AE	1.69	1.69	13.79	13.79	-1.23	-1.23
Austin Peay	OVC	0.22	0.22	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.21	0.21	17.24	17.24	-0.14	-0.14
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.19	0.19	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.19	0.19	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
UTSA	CUSA	0.17	0.17	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.16	0.16	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	8.00	8.00	-0.10	-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.12	0.12	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	82.76	82.76	0.07	0.07
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.11	0.11	76.67	76.67	0.06	0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00